Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
