A Prediction Market User Made $436,000 from Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro.
A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Predictions
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been apprehended.
A single trader, which joined the platform in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Market Signals Before Public Statement
Platform data shows that participants put the odds of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event.
Yet these probabilities had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made.
"This specific wager has all the signs of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated Dennis Kelleher.
Several of other platform users also earned large payouts from predicting the capture.
Political Attention Emerges
Politicians are starting to take note.
Proposed legislation put forward on recently would prevent government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs.
The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency.
Trading on insider information is against the law in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena.
An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."
